May 11, 2026 | LPL Research

LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.

The Post-Powell Transition: As Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair draws to a close, markets are beginning to look beyond the familiar playbook that has guided monetary policy for much of the past decade. A likely transition to a Kevin Warsh–led Fed would represent more than a change in leadership — it could signal a shift in how the central bank interacts with markets, balances transparency with discipline, and defines its own role in the financial system.

A Smaller Fed Footprint: Warsh has consistently argued for a smaller Fed footprint, less explicit guidance, and a greater role for market price discovery. These priorities arrive at a delicate moment, as Treasury supply remains elevated and fiscal concerns are becoming harder to ignore.

Implications for Investors: For investors, the post-Powell era may be defined less by what the Fed promises and more by how markets respond when those promises are pared back, raising important questions about volatility, yields, and the true cost of capital in the Treasury market.

May 4, 2026 | LPL Research

A frenzied week of macroeconomic data and big earnings news offered glimpses under the hood of both the U.S. economy and some of corporate America’s highest profile companies. Here we’ll focus on the latter, as last week brought eagerly anticipated quarterly results from mega-cap artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as Apple (AAPL). While scrutiny on capital investments remains high, takeaways from results broadly leaned positive, in our view.

Alphabet grabbed the spotlight among last Wednesday’s reports as the Google-parent company blew past Wall Street’s expectations. High demand for cloud and AI offerings drove a “meaningful acceleration” in growth, indicating to investors that significant AI investments are paying off. Worries that their main business line — Google search — could be taken over by chatbots, ebbed on signs that the firm has successfully integrated AI into its search offering, while also driving down costs to answer users’ questions with AI.

Strong growth in Amazon Web Services highlighted the e-commerce giant Amazon’s report. The unit accounts for most of Amazon’s operating profit, and intense demand for AI computing power drove the fastest quarterly sales growth since 2022. Online sales, which still make up the largest share of revenue for Amazon, rose 12% last quarter.

April 27, 2026 | LPL Research

The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base. Facing effects ranging from structural employment shifts to fragile supply chains to national security, over the last decade, Washington has been both vocal and active about bringing manufacturing back stateside.

This has left investors to explore if we’re actually seeing an “American Industrial Renaissance.” If so, what forces are driving it, and what economic indicators can markets turn to in order to confirm (or deny) it?

April 20, 2026 | LPL Research

The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield curves. Expanding beyond U.S. borders meaningfully enlarges the opportunity set. Non‑U.S. developed markets and emerging economies operate under differentiated monetary regimes, demographic profiles, and business cycles, creating dispersion in yields, duration profiles, and policy paths that can be harnessed through active allocation.

Emerging market debt and hedged non-U.S. developed market debt offer compelling income potential and diversification benefits, supported by lower correlations to both U.S. Treasuries and U.S. equities when constructed thoughtfully.

Recent geopolitical developments have further improved the value argument of global investing within fixed income markets. Escalating tensions surrounding Iran and broader instability in the Middle East have driven periodic spikes in energy prices and have put upward pressure on bond yields through inflation expectations and term premia. In many non-U.S. developed countries, bond yields — despite falling on Friday following the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic — remain among the highest levels seen in decades, offering both income and potential price appreciation opportunities.

Currency, credit, and liquidity risks are inherent in global fixed income and must be managed selectively, but they also represent sources of return for disciplined investors.

April 13, 2026 | LPL Research

Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.

Persistent market stress tends to follow when risks transmit into the real economy through slower growth, shifting inflation dynamics, weakening labor markets, or tighter financing conditions. If volatility remains contained — without a sustained tightening in financial conditions or a measurable deterioration in economic indicators — the macro impact is usually limited. The focus, therefore, should be on monitoring the transmission mechanism from risk to economic activity, not the catalyst itself.

April 6, 2026 | LPL Research

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk‑reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. That said, we don’t have market capitulation signals flashing (washed-out selling), nor do we have any more clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz opens up. For now, we believe the best course of action for investors is to be patient and wait for a better entry point to add equity risk.

March 30, 2026 | LPL Research

Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

Despite the sharp rise in oil prices and interest rates in March, our expectation is that the upcoming earnings season will be solid. While companies with business models sensitive to oil and rates may strike a more cautious tone in their outlooks, we expect to again be impressed by the resilience of corporate America, bolstered by our energy independence.

Our confidence in the earnings outlook for 2026 has not wavered, and future earnings are available to investors at a discounted price following the stock market pullback. While today may not mark the stock market low, and our technical analysis work points to heightened risk of some additional near-term downside, our belief that 2026 will be a good year for stocks on the back of solid economic growth and strong earnings has not changed. Once a path to ending the conflict becomes clear and oil and interest rates come back down, stocks should get a nice jolt to the upside as earnings recapture investor attention.

March 23, 2026 | LPL Research

Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.

Those concerns are highest within the private credit market, and that market is confronting its most meaningful stress test since becoming a dominant source of non‑bank financing, with an emerging wave of redemption pressure providing the clearest early signal of underlying liquidity mismatches.

The suspension of redemptions across several large non‑traded vehicles has exposed how appraisal‑based valuations, limited secondary‑market liquidity, and concentrated exposures in enterprise software can interact in a higher‑rate environment.

March 16, 2026 | LPL Research

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the U.S. has firmly established itself as a net exporter of total petroleum products, a shift that first occurred in 2020 and has continued for several years. In 2024 (the latest data from the EIA), U.S. petroleum exports averaged just under 11 million barrels per day, exceeding imports of about 8.4 million barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive year in which the U.S. held net exporter status. This structural change reflects not only higher domestic production but also the growing role of refined petroleum products and liquids flowing to global markets. As the U.S. continues to expand its export footprint, it becomes less impacted by oil price shocks that have historically weighed on domestic economic performance. For a deeper dive, consult the March Economic Navigator.

Globally, however, not all advanced economies share this strategic position. Japan, in particular, remains acutely exposed to international oil market volatility because it relies on imports to meet over 90% of its crude oil needs, with approximately 88% coming from the Middle East. This heavy dependence puts Japan in a vulnerable position as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions drive price uncertainty. Oil prices converted to the weakening yen also compound the negative impacts on the Japanese economy. The yen is over 4.5% weaker against the dollar since mid-February. Among the Group of Seven (G7) economies, only Canada and the U.S. are net exporters of petroleum products, while Japan — along with Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. — remains a net importer and is therefore more sensitive to global price spikes. In the current environment, the U.S. benefits from a partial buffer against oil shocks, while Japan must navigate heightened risk as global energy markets fluctuate.

March 9, 2026 | LPL Research

In our 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, we listed several risks to stocks that could prevent the S&P 500 from achieving our forecast for high-single-digit returns in 2026 (to a fair value target range of 7,300–7,400). One was narrow stock market leadership. Well, as mega cap technology leadership faded in recent months, the cyclicals and defensives picked up the slack. The traditional market-cap-weighted S&P 500 Index is down 1.5% year to date as of March 6, 2026, but the average stock in the index is up 3.2%.

March 3, 2026 | LPL Research

Looking beyond recent dividend strategies' performance, LPL Research asks and answers the question, “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”

Key Takeaways from this market commentary:

· Look Beyond Simple Dividend Yields. Our research shows that building a systematic dividend income strategy based solely on high dividend yields underperforms strategies based on total shareholder yield (dividend + buyback yield) or dividend growth.

· Pay Attention to Price-Based Returns. When analyzing equity income strategies, it is important to consider both sources of total return: current income and price-based returns (i.e., capital appreciation). Myopically focusing on total return ignores many real-world considerations like taxes, transaction costs, and current income requirements.

· Keep Quality Front of Mind. Given the susceptibility of high-dividend strategies to unknowingly fall into value- or yield-traps, we suggest “paying up” (i.e., accepting a slightly lower yield) to increase quality in any equity income portfolio, but especially in one focused solely on high dividend yields.

· What’s Working Today? Dividend-oriented equities remain in strong uptrends, supported by solid momentum and improving relative strength versus the broader market. The simple dividend yield strategy is currently leading on a short term basis, but longer-term relative trends favor continued outperformance from dividend growth and shareholder yield within the dividend stock landscape.

February 23, 2026 | LPL Research

#1: What is Changing in the 2026 SAA?

Our Strategic Asset Allocation is the long‑horizon blueprint that guides portfolios across market cycles. For 2026, we maintain a modest, but slightly reduced, underweight to total equity risk, reduced domestic small caps, increased exposure to developed international and U.S. large value equities, and maintain a purposeful allocation to real assets and select alternative investments. Core high‑quality fixed income remains the anchor. We are measured with longer-duration Treasuries given less stable correlations, which supports a more balanced risk posture at a time when the compensation for taking equity risk is fair but not abundant.

February 17, 2026 | LPL Research

When uncertainty rises, volatility usually follows as the market has a tendency of pricing in worst-case scenarios quickly. AI’s evolution has accelerated rapidly, shifting from novelty use cases to broad, productivity‑enhancing applications across industries. At this stage of the cycle, it appears apparent AI will continue permeating workflows and reshaping how work is executed, though likely without delivering the dramatic “yellow pages” event some investors now fear.

Undoubtedly, there will be disruption as with any transformative technology, but it probably won’t lead to the extinction of the entire software industry, which is what the market is arguably beginning to price in across many companies in the space. Despite the re-rating in price and subsequent risk premium, fundamental deterioration has been relatively minimal. For example, the S&P North American Technology Software Index, home to 110 predominantly larger-cap software companies, is still forecasted to grow revenues this year by 17% and generate free cash flow margins by around 25% (free cash flows divided by revenue).

February 9, 2026 | LPL Research

After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.

#1: U.S. Dollar Looks Like It Wants to Go Lower
#2: Earnings Growth Is Accelerating
#3: Exposure to AI Boom in Asia
#4: Technical Analysis Trends Are Compelling
#5: Attractive Valuations

February 2, 2026 | LPL Research

The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.

January 26, 2026 | LPL Research

Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it ranks near the top of major advanced economies, placing it ahead of Germany, France, the U.K., Japan, and Canada.

January 20, 2026 | LPL Research

The melt‑up in the metals market that defined 2025 has extended its strength into the early weeks of the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as one of the leading asset classes across global markets. To the surprise of most, gold outperformed the broader equity market for a third consecutive year, surging roughly 65% in 2025 and far exceeding the S&P 500’s gains. Silver delivered an even more extraordinary performance, posting its best year since 1979 with annual gains near 150% and reaching generational price highs. The rally, however, cannot be attributed solely to a weaker U.S. dollar or the resumption of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate‑cutting cycle in September. Policy dynamics ranging from robust central‑bank gold purchases to evolving trade and geopolitical strategies significantly influenced price action across the metals landscape. Together with structural supply shortages and rising industrial demand, these factors have created a powerful backdrop that continues to shape market volatility and performance. 

January 12, 2026 | LPL Research

Not only did the U.S. economy not take a sudden turn south last quarter, but it’s been doing quite well. Third quarter GDP grew more than 4% annualized, and more solid growth is anticipated in Q4 (though probably not quite as strong). Remember that’s in real terms (inflation adjusted), so add 3% or so of inflation to get a rough approximation of the attractive revenue opportunity. Corporate America delivered more than 8% revenue growth in Q3 2025 and in our view, should be able to do that again in Q4, more than enough to extend the double-digit earnings growth streak—now at four quarters.

AI names, including the Magnificent (Mag) Seven, will again be a significant driver of earnings growth in the fourth quarter. Based on current estimates, about 80% of the 8% expected S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter will be driven by the technology sector, which excludes several leading AI players including Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META). The sector will likely grow its earnings in Q4 by more than 30% when all the numbers are in, though current consensus is 25.8%.

January 5, 2026 | LPL Research

Staying Fully Invested — Hit. Perhaps our most important tactical recommendation last year was to remain neutral equities. While staying neutral all year may seem like a miss in such a strong year, and of course, an overweight would’ve been better, a downgrade was tempting given the volatility last spring around tariffs. So, we’ll call maintaining full equity allocations a win. Tariffs weren’t the only concern, with market concentration, excessively bullish sentiment, high valuations, deficits, and inflation among the many concerns cited by the bears. The Russell 3000 returned 17.1% in 2025.